AFL risk free betting strategy

April 29, 2015

AFL matched betting strategy

Round 5 of the 2015 AFL season is providing punters with a fail-safe opportunity to make a profit. This particular betting strategy works, we know because we did it ourselves during Round 4! It centres around head-to-head betting on AFL matches and we’ll now explain how you can guarantee that you won’t lose.

Get $2 about all favourites on Saturday 2nd May

The key to this strategy centres around bookmaking firm Ladbrokes special offer of a price of $2 about every favourite during Saturday’s matches. So any Ladbrokes member can receive even-money about each of Geelong, Sydney, Gold Coast Suns, Hawthorn and West Coast all winning. You can bet on all 5 matches. The maximum bet is only $20, but this still allows you to turn a profit. If you’re struggling to find the special $2 price, be sure to visit the desktop version of the site. This same strategy delivered a $48 profit in Round 4 without ever risking a dollar.

  • Back all 5 favourites with Ladbrokes at the price of $2
Ladbrokes AFL $2 special

Back the underdogs as well

Now if you can receive $2 about the favourite winning in a two-horse race, it means that you can go to another bookmaker and find a price better than $2 about the underdog, the team least favoured to win. At this point, we’ll take a look at the fixed head-to-head prices on these AFL matches.

The odds of the AFL Matches

  • Richmond $2.08 vs Geelong $1.75 ($2 with Ladbrokes)
  • Sydney $1.16 vs Western Bulldogs $5.25
  • Gold Coast $1.77 vs Brisbane $2.05
  • North Melbourne $3.00 vs Hawthorn $1.39
  • West Coast $1.57 vs Greater Western Sydney $2.40

Back both teams in all 5 matches

To guarantee that you won’t lose using this betting strategy, you need to back all of the five underdog (least favoured to win) teams by the same amount, that is place a $20 win bet on each of these teams. This means that you will have backed all 5 favourites with Ladbrokes at $2 each, and each of the outsiders with another betting agency. Because you have already secured such a good price about the favourites, you will have backed both teams at odds of $2 or better and are therefore guaranteed not to lose. So you will make money if any one of the five underdog teams win. Recommendation: back the highest priced teams with Sportsbet.

  • Back the underdogs with Sportsbet

It gets better…

The strategy works even better depending on who you bet with. With so many promotions on the AFL each week, it’s easy to find cash-back bonuses on AFL head-to-head bets. Sportsbet is currently running a cash-back refund on all head-to-head bets if your selected team leads at any half or quarter time break! This means that you are a decent chance of having your bet on the underdog refunded with cash. Last week, St Kilda lead Carlton at quarter time before winning, handing punters that used this strategy a refund on their St Kilda bet, and a $20 profit on their Carlton bet.

Sportsbet head-to-head refund

Lay the favourite with Betfair

Another way to take advantage of this free betting strategy is to back the favoured team with Ladbrokes, and then lay the same team with Betfair. For example, you could lay Sydney at a price of just $1.20. So if they were to win, you’d lose $4 to Betfair, but win $20 with Ladbrokes.

  • Consider laying the short priced favourites with Betfair

Other relevant promotions on Round 5 matches

You might also want to consider both the CrownBet and William Hill head-to-head promotions. Crownbet will refund losing bets where the team goes down by 18 points or less. Last week, Sydney would have satisfied this requirement despite losing the match. William Hill is offering a refund on losing bets where the team scores 80 points or more. Both the Hawthorn and St Kilda results last weekend would have triggered a bonus bet with this offer.

The cream on the cake

If all of that is not enough to get you excited, consider combining this strategy with a sign up free bet. If you reside in Queensland, Tasmania, NT or the ACT, you can receive free bets when you register an account with a new bookmaker. If you were to deposit $100 with either Ladbrokes or Sportsbet, you would already turnover your deposit amount using this strategy. Then you would be left with a guaranteed profit, plus at least $100 in free bets to enjoy punting with!